Wow, as someone holding SLS due to conviction from galinpepimut-s (gps) research, thank you for this deep dive on Sls-009. Don’t have the time now but will def be back for a deep read.
What are your thoughts on gps phase3 trial?
26
u/ModelingDenver101
SOB, I'M IN!!
21
u/astroworlddd
Babe wake up new Confident Web DD just dropped
17
u/The_Pixel_Knight
SLS and IBRX were the first stocks I bought. Now my only 2 stocks. Just over 1000 shares in SLS.
Im not exactly rich, so this could be life changing tbh.
Wish I knew a ballpark timeline. Debating whether to invest more.
15
u/Snoo-90236
Ohh god Nooooooooo!!! Please for the love of god stop it with the DD. Everytime I see one of ur DD makes me wanna add some more. I already full ported this shit. And I got no money left bro. Im gotta sell my ass soon, or work extra behind Wendy's dumpster. Fukc
11
u/Lowlander-b9
Was hoping you would tackle SLS009. Thanks - look forward to reviewing.
8
u/Consy98
Was previously an SLS doubter, and never really had a large position but I’d never come across your posts but this has completely cleared any doubt I had. This post and research is incredible. Thank you so much. Opening a large position in the AM. Thanks again!
8
u/Fragrant_Persimmon_8
You dirty dog, I'm in! (For 1000 more shares)
7
u/KirklandJosh
Legend
7
u/redditshelley1
Amazing resource! Thanks for sharing!
5
u/Dagobot78
I’m up big on SLs… i sold 1000 shares last week and bought $7 options for Jan 2027
5
u/TestoWenzx
RemindMe! 1 day
5
u/currysoup19
RemindMe! 365 days
5
u/Consy98
Was previously an SLS doubter, and never really had a large position but I’d never come across your posts but this has completely cleared any doubt I had. This post and research is incredible. Thank you so much. Opening a large position in the AM. Thanks again!
4
u/Ambitious-Dark-6321
OP maybe a stupid question but if the 80 event annoucemend still takes longer en longer does it still improve the hazard ratio or has is halted. Sorry for my English it is not my first language.
4
u/bmarvin35
I’ve been in since$4. Holding 7000 shares so far
4
u/dirksqjaw
Overall, brilliant DD. Honestly one of the best I've seen in biotech. You lost me at the %99.99 thing though, that's a conviction statement disguised as math.The model is good enough to say "probability of success is meaningfully above the base rate for Phase 3 oncology trials". It is not good enough to compress the failure probability to 0.01%. Saying a blinded Phase 3 cancer trial has a 99.99% success rate isn't doing science, you've started writing fan fiction.
Just to pump the brakes a little here, note that the control arm problem isn't addressed. What if VEN/AZA in 2024-2025 (the REGAL control arm's actual treatment era) produces 14-16 month median OS rather than the 6-8 month historical baseline? That would compress the hazard ratio dramatically even if GPS is genuinely extending survival. The cure-fraction model uses historical BAT priors. If the actual control arm is outperforming those priors, the HR prediction becomes unreliable.
Don't get me wrong, I HOPE you are fully right, but I'm playing this like a typical biotech binary play. This is still a casino.
4
u/PrettyStatistician29
RemindMe! 1 year
4
u/steadyeddy_10
Thank you for the insight!
3
u/ProfessionalDesk1914
thanks, appreciate the sls dd and will read a few times. did notice you listed the market cap as 494m when it's roughly double at current share count and around ~1.16b fully diluted.
3
u/mad_papooser
I think if GPS pushes later into Q4 or Q1 of 2027, we should have early data on SLS009- I'd think it would lean more towards an all-cash deal vs cash plus CVRs.
3
u/Just-Finance1426
Amazing DD as usual, thanks confident-web. I have a couple questions though - why is SLS running a phase 2B trial for SLS009 instead of moving directly to a phase 3?
And why did SLS set such an aggressive primary endpoint of HR < 0.63 for GPS? It seems like they would have achieved statistical significance with a smaller trial, or been able to conclude the trial with fewer events if they didn’t aim so high - I’ve heard that HR < 0.8 is generally sufficient to get approval.
3
u/Roffles85
Another one for me to read, thanks. Just out of interest what is the average cost of your shares, thats a huge investment…
3
u/Accomplished_Way8964
Thank you. My big fear at this point is the FDA decides the REGAL results are too good and ask them to run the trial again. Sounds preposterous, I know.
3
u/Accurate_Pay_2242
For the BO
3
u/lndnmdn
holy yaparoni
3
u/lardarz
Alright clever clogs, I'm in
3
u/JoeAceJR20
I have a DITM call for sls
3
u/Intelligent_Yoloer
I’ve gone through all the DD and the comment threads on confident-web’s posts, and I still haven’t seen anyone clearly disprove the thesis with solid numbers. This man has exceptional talent in ML and statistics.
This is still a binary play, and anything can happen. I will not go full port. I’m in with about 30% of my port right now, slowly adding in more shares with the gains from my other stocks.
2
u/RaichuCake
Oh please give us a $100 each share buyout
2
u/My5t3ry
Lots of words and pictures. Im in ! Thanks OP
2
u/carpool4445
Solid DD as usual. Have a question not about science but about politics. If the war in the middle east drags on, what would happen if there were to be a global recession and wider stock market decline. The strait of Hormuz being shut down halts 20% of global oil, 33% of global fertilizer. How would this affect a buyout?
2
u/Physical_Package_340
20% of my portfolio now! Should I add more OP?
2
u/SteveMcHeave
Thanks for all of your hard work here. Is using 53 AML trial cohorts enough for statistically significant ML results? The sample size of patients also seems way too low for definitive phase 3 clearance.
99% chance of REGAL being a go seems a bit excessive.
2
u/Consy98
Was previously an SLS doubter, and never really had a large position but I’d never come across your posts but this has completely cleared any doubt I had. This post and research is incredible. Thank you so much. Opening a large position in the AM. Thanks again!
2
u/1fortheroad24theshow
Much great data, much that does not make sense, at least to me. Several factual errors, herein, only to quibble, RPPR Vouchers, last 3 or 4 sold for $205M not $100.
VINC VIP150 was the Most advanced CDK9 prior to Tambiciclib, its absent from your analysis.
I Saw no discussion of the many fda apprved Kinase inhbitors.
Tambiciclib P2B results for the AML-MR patients on optimal dose was not yet reached, so it will be longer than the 8.9 months you scaffold much of your data.
In attempting to simplify, the OCT webcast has a very detailed analysis, from the Dr's trialing Tambiciclib, and underscores yours analysis, Tambiciclib will work better in Front Line Setting, than the refractory environment from the P2b, which ensures its approval, as the p2b data is already better than the current SOC AML-MR CPX-351.
Thank you for the exceptional Due Diligence/
2
u/BigPharmaSLS
WHAT IS YOUR POSTING NAME ON STOCKTWITS?
2
u/carpool4445
Separate question pertaining to the REGAL timeline. In a separate thread, you argue that the models project it ending between October 26 - March 27 or even later. However I have heard it argued that REGAL is due “any day now”. This thread has run4theroses’s DD (https://www.reddit.com/r/sellasLifescience/comments/1rdp2sw/comment/o7qra8n/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) and he argues that events are not linear and that REGAL results are imminent. Do you mind breaking down his claims and your own projected timeline more? I’m trying to resolve these competing arguments in my head but do not know enough science/stats to do so.
also you might have to dig around in that comment section. A lot of comments were deleted so his DD is buried in a long comment chain
1
u/carpool4445
I am debating calls and thought I'd ask. $10 calls for Jan 2027 are a safe play yea? Because if REGAL doesn't end, the results from SLS-009 in Q4 will definitely spike the price above $10.
1
u/Content-Resource5887
Still early for a lot of these models, but they’re definitely worth keeping on the radar.
1
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